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WinSim21 Statistics

Some say that you need to know the odds so that you know what to expect. Statistics help you quantify what is normal and help you appreciate the abnormal as it occurs. Most betting systems do well under normal conditions, but can be susceptible to huge losses when the unthinkable occurs. The odds have it that the house wins more often than the player, added mainly by the fact that the dealer always wins when the player busts. Through shrewd play, players hope to overcome this advantage by blackjacks (which pay higher odds), increasing wagers in favorable situations with splitting and double-down, and luck. Some players are able to count cards and adjust their betting and playing accordingly. But even with all this, the house will ALWAYS win more hands than the player in the long run.

Statistics for different dealer up-cards offer the appreciation that certain upcards favor the house, while others do not. Notice that the player here pushes against a dealer's ace 15% of the time. This is the result of counting cards! Using the basic strategy this drops to 5% with the house winning the bulk of the remainder!

Statistics for the outcome of different player's hands shows some interesting facts. First, when the player stands on a stiff hand when dealer has a bad low card, and player needs dealer to bust in order to win, that the dealer obliges by busting less than half the time! Many players consider dealer busting with a low card as a rite, they expect it, and they can't understand when they lose. Second is that eighteen is not a good hand for the player (or the dealer). In the hand value dialog you might wonder how the player would push 0.01% of the time with a BUSTed hand; well, it's due to the player splitting a hand, busting on a split hand (after the first hand), and having the dealer turn over an ace for blackjack (All the split hands become pushes, EXCEPT the first!)

Among the most interesting anomalies, both profitable and dangerous, are the impressive winning and losing streaks. And blackjack is a game that offers both. In general, in the course of a weekend, any streak over 10 is exceptional, though it is not uncommon for these to happen more than once. Streaks of 13 or more are rare, and those of 16 or more are really pushing the envelope for a weekend of recreational play. By the time you get to 18 hands in a row, you really are witnessing a once in a decade event for the recreational player. But they can and do occur. In the simulation shown here for 1 million hands, the player had three 17-in-a-row winning streaks, one 18-in-a-row winning streak, and a phenomonal 20-in-a-row winning streak! I've had two 18-hand winning streaks in actual casino play. One can certainly question the wisdom of anyone who hangs around to be on the receiving end of an 18-in-a-row losing streak. I mean, patience is one thing, but that might be a bit much!


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